Still to Come: Arsenal at Napoli, Liverpool vs Atlético, and Irankunda's Possible Debut
Tuesday's six fixtures produced two upsets and no formalities. The remainder of Matchday 1 arrives across Wednesday and Thursday, and it carries the fixtures most people circled when the draw landed: Arsenal travelling to Napoli, Liverpool hosting Atlético Madrid, PSG beginning their three-peat bid, and a Socceroos winger potentially making his Champions League debut in Lisbon.
Napoli vs Arsenal — The Hardest Away Trip Handed to Any English Club
The models make Arsenal 57.1% favourites against Napoli's 17.9%, with 25% for the draw — a wider gap than the reputations suggest, but Napoli's home atmosphere is among the most difficult in European football. Arsenal arrive carrying both a Premier League title defence and the memory of last season's penalty-shootout final defeat to PSG after an unbeaten league phase.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid — The Tactical Mismatch
Liverpool at 56.3%, Atlético at 20.2%, draw at 23.5%. That draw probability is meaningfully higher than in most fixtures with a comparable favourite gap, and it reflects exactly what Simeone's side do: make matches unwinnable rather than lose them. Anfield is a genuine advantage against most opponents. Against a team built specifically to absorb pressure and slow tempo, it counts for less.
🌙 THE REMAINING FIXTURES
Sporting CP vs Galatasaray — The Australian Angle
Sporting are rated 52.7% at home against Galatasaray's 23% — a closer contest than the seeding suggests, largely because Galatasaray bring one of the most intimidating travelling supports in European football. For Australian fans, the interest is Nestory Irankunda, who could make his Champions League debut weeks after moving from Watford on a five-year deal following his World Cup goal against Türkiye.
PSG Get the Kindest Possible Start
At 93.6% against Slovan Bratislava, the two-time defending champions have the most lopsided fixture of the entire round. That matters more than it looks: PSG have finished outside the league-phase top eight in both of their title-winning campaigns, relying on knockout sharpness rather than group dominance. Their group also contains Barcelona and Manchester City later, so points banked early are points they will need.
Como's Debut and Bayern's Opener
Italian side Como, rated 51.7% at home against RB Leipzig, mark one of the more remarkable recent rises in European football — a club now hosting Champions League football on the shores of Lake Como. Bayern Munich, meanwhile, open at 88.3% against Bodø/Glimt, beginning a campaign in which they also face Manchester United.
What Tuesday Suggests About the Rest
Two of six Tuesday fixtures went against the models — Villa winning the coin flip in Belgium, Betis winning in France as 29.9% underdogs. Post-World Cup seasons reliably produce more variance than probability models expect, which makes the two closest remaining fixtures — Sporting against Galatasaray and Como against Leipzig — the ones most likely to produce another surprise.
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